Another Brief Glimpse Into Madness

With the impending closing in on the 24 month wait from LID to referral, Rumor Queen's site has gone crazy with posts from bewildered and discouraged people. There was a posting from an adoption agency on the projected wait time, the reasons behind it, and what the appropriate response should be from all involved. Rumor Queen herself blogged about this original posting with her own response to each key point. The following is from her blog. Get ready - this is a definite brain ache!

November 8th, 2007
"As has been reported in the forum, a respected agency has done some research, and sent a letter to their clients with some answers. The agency is clear to say that what they are saying is what they believe is true. I’m going to do this in bullet points, with my thoughts in italics.

Abandonment is down. Farmers and low income city residents who have one female child get nationwide medical and retirement insurance. This is part of a drive to try to balance the female population. (I agree with this statement, there are lots of incentives for people to keep their girls. I’m not sure abandonment is down as much as we are being led to believe, but I agree that abandonments are happening in some areas less than they did in the past.)

Some orphanages still have many children. The agency reporting seems to think that in some cases this is because the orphanage directors saw other orphanage directors face severe punishment in the Hunan scandal. (We’ve talked about this as well, that some directors are now afraid to send paperwork because of the way the directors were treated in the Hunan scandal. I’m told the CCAA smoothed that over by issuing clear procedures, and assuring directors that if the procedures were followed as outlined then the directors could not be prosecuted later. But, maybe some of them weren’t convinced.)

Some orphanage directors do keep kids just to keep the orphanage open, or to keep receiving government funding. But some orphanage directors are acting in the best interest of the children in their care and are working to place all of the children that they can place. (I agree with this statement, too. Some orphanages are overflowing, some are almost empty. I’ll also say that some are widely using foster care, too.)

The Civil Affairs Ministry began requiring police reports documetning a child’s abandonment status and this has caused more work for the SWI’s and the local police departments. (We’ve talked about this as well, after the Hunan scandal some rules were changed, and one of them was that an abandoned child had to have a police report when found or they could not be adopted internationally.)

Domestic adoption is up. The average “donation” paid for a domestic adoption is close to $6,000. Plus the costs to prepare paperwork are not as expensive. (I’m not sure this is the case in all provinces, as I’m aware of an orphanage where the total costs to adopt domestically are around 2500 yuan which is around $330. Perhaps the higher fee involves those who go through the CCAA instead of going straight to the orphanage? I’m sure that $6,000 is there in some cases or the agency would not have reported it. It really bothers me that there seems to be this “competition” between domestic and IA though. If domestic adoption can handle the orphan population then there should not be IA. If domestic can not, then there should be IA. And cost should not come into play. From what I’ve been told, domestic adoption is indeed up, but not in enough numbers come close to emptying the orphanages, so IA is still needed. Both should be able to co-exist without monetary competition. )

In regards to the Olympics, the agency feels that China is of the mind to just not rock the boat about anything until the Olympics are over. Their priority is to finish the Olympics with no problems cropping up. They are not going to try to force an SWI to send files now because it’s safer to do nothing and not risk drawing negative attention to the program. (While I personally think the Olympics are playing a larger role in the slowdown, I appreciate that perhaps the role is more subtle. This agency’s statement is actually better than my own thoughts, because in my version there is no reason to try to improve things once the Olympics are over. In this version there seems to be a possibility that things may improve after the Olympics.)

The agency feels that the CCAA does care about the wait, but they are not as powerful as we think they are. They are at the mercy of the provinces and orphanages right now, they get whatever is sent to them and cannot demand more. (I’m still digesting this one. What I’ve heard previously is that the CCAA has their hands tied by the higher ups telling them what they can and can’t do. This version has their hands tied by the orphanages and provinces. The end result is the same though, the CCAA is doing the best they can and they are not the bad guy.)

The CCAA was created in 1996 with a workload of 3,000 placements a year. China wanted to send less babies than South Korea and Russia. In 1997 the CCAA placed more than South Korea and there were discussions about it. China became proud that families liked their children, and the number was raised to more than 10,000. (Yes, and from what I heard someone changed their mind about the “pride” part of that back in 2005 and thus things started slowing down.)

China is the only country who places mostly abandoned children. Other countries place children with known birth parents or extended families. As China develops, their IA program may evolve into a system similar to that of other countries. This will likely take a while, but there is a good chance that it will happen. (Wow. That is completely new information. And could be a very big deal.)

Families who do not mind waiting will get a referral. The wait will be four years, worst case scenario. The agency is clear that they trust these statements. (I completely believe the first part, that if you are prepared to wait you’ll eventually get a referral (assuming you are still eligible when the time comes.) I do not think that the CCAA or China plans to completely stop the program any time soon. However, I wonder how they can be sure about a worst case scenario. That being said, my own feelings have been that the worst is probably going to be somewhere around the four year mark as well. The math can (and does) take us much farther, but I just can’t bring myself to believe that it will go much over four to four and a half years.)

I think I’ve hit all of the main points. Most of it is stuff we’ve been over dozens of times before, but it is nice to have a respected agency put their two cents in.
I think that the only truly new “news” is the future possibility of China allowing children with known families to be adopted.
The four year maximum thing has come to us a few times before, so it’s not brand new, but having this particular affirmation of that does give it more weight (to me, at least)."

CCAA Update 11-2007

The CCAA (China Center of Adoption Affairs) has updated their website with referrals through December 8, 2005. So, as you can see, they made it through 8 days of December this month - we'll see what happens next month, when the program will hit the dreaded 24 month mark between LID's and referrals. I want to say congratulations to all the new moms and dads who are finally going to meet their babies.

Someone To Hold Our Hand

Great news! I mentioned in a past post that we've been without a social worker through our adoption agency since our previous SW left about five weeks ago. We received notice yesterday that we indeed have a new case worker. We are familiar with her and couldn't be more thrilled to be working with her. She comes very highly recommended and we look forward to our future partnership. This is a little piece of happiness in an otherwise long line of "hurry up and wait".

Bella ... Is ... Beautiful

A new movie has just been released called "Bella". It is a small, independent film release - one that, unfortunately, does not have very wide distribution. "Bella" has recently won the coveted People's Choice Award at the highly respected Toronto Film Festival, an award shared by an impressive list of past films, such as: "Crouching Tiger Hidden Dragon", "American Beauty", and "Life Is Beautiful". This is also a film that is being promoted on adoption websites, as well as many pro-life organizations. Laura and I got a babysitter Tuesday night and we went to see the film. I have to tell you, this movie is amazing. The theme of the film is so beautifully portrayed on the screen - it's message comes shining through with compassion and incredible creativity. The director is extremely talented and the acting is superb. With a story of love, sacrifice, and redemption - this is an absolutely wonderful film. Go see "Bella" - it is truly beautiful.

A Brief Glimpse Into Madness

I posted a few days ago that I would soon be giving some sort of explanation about the prospective future of the China wait times. This is an extremely complicated issue that cannot possibly be explained in one post, but I found a fairly good summary on ChinaAdoptTalk (aka "Rumor Queen"). I recognize that this article can at times get very confusing for you (trust me, it's confusing even to me), but give it a shot and ask me any questions you may have - I'll try to answer them. The following synopsis is from RQ's blog.
BTW - some of the acronyms listed within the article include: CCAA (China Center of Adoption Affairs), LID (Log-In-Date), SN (Special Needs), NSN (Non-Special Needs), USCIS (U.S. Citizen & Immigration Services), IA (International Adoption), SWI (Social Welfare Institute-[orphanage]).

The immediate future - rumors for and against a speed up
"We all know that the CCAA told multiple agencies and countries during their tour that things will pick up after the first of the year. Specifically, they will do 15 days at a time (or take two calendar months to do a LID month, there were several variations that said the same thing).
As I’ve noted before, it appears that in order to do 15 days at a time they will need to increase the number of NSN referrals issued per month in order to make that happen.
There has been a lot of speculation on whether this will happen. People remember that the CCAA has told agencies other things in the past that didn’t turn out to be true, and so there is a good deal of mis-trust about this statement.
I’ve received a few emails from people who claim to have special knowledge. Though they are a bit cryptic about their actual source, it appears from what little they do say, that their sources are probably different from each other. And yet they all have a few things in common. The most notable being that the 15 days per month are not going to happen. Putting them all together, I believe the main points are:
The ceiling/quota next year will be even lower than this year (which is lower than last year’s ceiling/quota).
The COA (which is part of the State Department?) is frowning on agencies that are trying to be vague about the wait times for China.
Two weeks (15 days) of referrals will not happen. They may get close a few times, but do not expect it to happen on a regular basis.
The Special Needs Program is now the primary focus, and they are trying to ramp the NSN program down as quickly as possible without it becoming a media event or having an outcry about human rights issues.

What does this mean?
I don’t know. I have people with “special insider information” saying both things - that the ceiling/quota is going to be higher next year from some and that it will go down yet again from others. The supposed sources for the good news seems to be agencies and facilitators and for the not-so-good news seems to mostly be from U.S. official channels. How would our State Department or USCIS or COA know these things? I don’t know.
Also, at least two agencies seem to be basing their speed up statements on the fact that they know that the CCAA is has matched their clients pretty far out ahead of time. As I’ve said before, I’m sure that the CCAA is matching some families far ahead of time, but I don’t know that they have matched everyone ahead of time. I have some circumstantial evidence from the most recent batch that tells me that they are not matching everyone early. I don’t know anything for sure, but if I’m correct on that then at least two agencies are basing their speed up hopes on incomplete information. Just because the CCAA has matched their families pretty far in advance, it does not mean the CCAA has matched all families so far in advance.
One thing I have heard quite a bit of that seems to be in agreement from all sides: Current SN vs NSN consulate appointments seem to be more SN than NSN. Also, many agencies (not all agencies, many agencies) are reporting that they are now sending more families to China to complete a SN adoption than they are in the NSN program. I believe that at this time the SN program is bigger than the NSN program. Not in terms of dossiers, of course, but in terms of children actually being adopted each month. (As a side note, the State Department numbers should be out soon for the fiscal year just ended, it will be interesting to see what those numbers say. I wish they broke them down by program, but I guess we take what we can get at this point.)
I believe that December 2005 is about 60% the size of November 2005. I also believe that the CCAA should be able to get through December in three months (with maybe a few December LIDs included in a fourth month that would be mostly made up of January LIDs). This assumes that they continue to do about the same number of NSN referrals per calendar month as they have been doing. If they increase that number then it could be less than three months, if they reduce that number even more, then, well, I don’t want to go there.
As far as speed up rumors, let’s look at a bit of history. Over the past two years we have had at least two big events where we were SURE things were going to speed up in the next month or two. First there was the promise last summer that the CCAA didn’t want the wait to go over a year. We were certain things would speed up since we were so close to that year mark - and even when we hit the year mark there were agencies saying it wouldn’t go over 14 months, that the CCAA was working hard to keep the wait from continueing to grow. I believed them, as did many others.
Then, last fall we had the combined rumor of new SWI’s being added to the IA program in the spring plus Brian Stuy’s statement last September that we were currently at the longest wait times. And then there was the waiting dad with a December of ‘05 LID who asked the CCAA director face to face when he would get his referral and was told December. (We all thought it meant last December, none of us thought it was possible it would be the following December.)
So last fall we were all pretty much believing things would speed up, which didn’t happen. And then came January ‘07 and they put the brakes on even more.
There was also the rumor from agencies that the CCAA wasn’t going to let the wait get to the point where people would have to redo their I-171H, but the CCAA later made it pretty clear that they were not concerned about that and if we didn’t like it we should look to our government to change, not to them to shorten the wait.
So where does this leave us now? We’ve basically been promised (again) that things are going to pick up a bit. Soon. And this time we are hearing it from the CCAA (told to multiple agencies and governments over the summer) as well as agencies continuing to get this word now from the CCAA. Some of us interpret the CCAA’s statement to governments and agencies to mean this next batch (since we are through with November) and some people interpret it to mean the batch to arrive in December (the first batch of the CCAA’s next fiscal year) and some people interpret it to mean the batch to arrive in January (since that’s the first of 2008). And many of us feel like Charlie Brown and the football - not going to fall for it again. But then, hope springs eternal, and maybe they are telling the truth this time and the football won’t be yanked away yet again.

To summarize:
We know that if things stay exactly the same then LID days per batch should increase because we know there aren’t as many people logged in during the next few months.
We’ve been promised 15 days at a time (two months to do one month, etc), which would seem to mean an increase in the number of referrals per month.
There are rumors out there that the ceiling/quota will indeed be higher next year, which means maybe they are going to pull it off.
There are also rumors that the ceiling/quota next year will be lower, which would be very very very bad.
We may know this month, or next month, but at the latest we should know by the January batch whether this rumored speed up is going to happen."

This entry was posted on ChinaAdoptTalk (aka RQ) on Tuesday, October 9th, 2007.

I realize that this article may have caused more confusion than it actually helped. Welcome to the club.

Raina Beach - Rarotonga, Cook Islands

There's a group of islands in the South Pacific near Fiji called the Cook Islands. One of these islands is called Rarotonga, and on this island, there is an area called Raina Beach. I found this picture of it while searching the internet, and was amazed at the fact that I recognize this place. I've never been there (although by the looks of the photo, it's now on our list of places to visit before we die). I know Rarotonga from our favorite show - Survivor. A few seasons ago, Survivor was located on the Cook Islands, and it's hard to forget a place that beautiful. Someday maybe we can visit Rarotonga and Raina Beach. I can hardly envision a more breathtaking scene - standing on that sand, named with a beautiful name. The name of our daughter. Maybe she'd like to see it too.

There's Always Next Year

As a lifelong fan of the almighty Chicago White Sox, I just couldn't let the opportunity pass by to say congratulations to the Cubbies on yet another year of futility. I believe next year will be the magnificent 100 year anniversary of the last World Series title for the north side's loveable losers. Nothing could've been more satisfying than witnessing the Cubs' demise against the Diamondbacks. Ah, Yes - perpetual failure never tasted quite so sweet. I think this photo just about says it better than I ever could.